Slight risk this morning — then every ensemble member says Thursday is a washout

Today (Wednesday 10 June) carries a SLGT on the convective outlook — the first risk-day marker in over a week, and a textbook example of the high-shear, low-CAPE regime the June pattern flip has dealt us.

The Wednesday setup

The Stormfront lens numbers, from the overnight run:

• Peak CAPE: ~500 J/kg — modest, but workable for organised convection
• 0–6 km bulk shear: ~29 m/s — far more than 500 J/kg "needs"
• Risk window peaking from ~09:00 — a morning show, not an afternoon one
• Hazards flagged: wind and lightning

With this much shear over this little instability, expect convection in lines and arcs rather than discrete cells: fast-moving, gusty, electrically active in bursts, and capable of a brief spin-up where a line segment bows or breaks. The morning peak matters — if you're chasing, this is a dawn start, and radar plus the chase targets board will move quickly.

Thursday: rare unanimity

Behind today's system, the medium-range ensembles are about as confident as ensembles get. For Thursday, all 31 GFS members and all 51 ECMWF members — 82 out of 82 — are wet over the central-UK reference point, with combined model agreement at 95%.

The temperature signal is just as stark: ensemble-mean daily temperatures near 11–12°C, numbers that belong to late April rather than the middle of June. No convective play in it — the lens has Thursday flat — just a cold, saturating, stratiform soak with a flood-nuisance flavour.

Then quiet

Friday through the weekend trends drier but stays cool and capped, with CAPE struggling to clear three figures. The next genuine instability window is one for the medium-range signal board to find. For one morning, though, the 2026 season is live again — set the alarm.