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← Chase 1 · Forecast skill
The Met Office publishes point forecasts on a fixed grid. We capture them every issue, and compare each one against what Chase 1 actually measured at the same hour. Positive bias means the forecast was too warm or too windy.
| Lead | N | Temp bias | Temp RMSE | Wind bias | Wind RMSE | Dir MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–3h | 15 | +1.7°C | 1.82°C | -17.0 km/h | 31.77 km/h | 74° |
| 3–6h | 21 | +1.5°C | 1.57°C | -14.1 km/h | 31.2 km/h | 72° |
| 6–12h | 42 | +1.7°C | 1.82°C | -15.6 km/h | 30.16 km/h | 84° |
| 12–24h | 49 | +2.1°C | 2.21°C | -10.8 km/h | 29.03 km/h | 84° |
| 24–48h | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 48h+ | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Valid time (UTC) | Lead | Forecast T | Actual T | Forecast wind | Actual wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 19:00 | 21h | 12.9°C | 10.7°C | 9 mph | 2 mph |
| 2026-05-18 19:00 | 20h | 12.5°C | 10.7°C | 8 mph | 2 mph |
| 2026-05-18 19:00 | 19h | 12.5°C | 10.7°C | 8 mph | 2 mph |
| 2026-05-18 19:00 | 18h | 12.7°C | 10.7°C | 8 mph | 2 mph |
| 2026-05-18 19:00 | 17h | 12.6°C | 10.7°C | 8 mph | 2 mph |
| 2026-05-18 19:00 |
| 16h |
| 12.6°C |
| 10.7°C |
| 8 mph |
| 2 mph |
| 2026-05-18 19:00 | 15h | 12.7°C | 10.7°C | 8 mph | 2 mph |
| 2026-05-18 19:00 | 14h | 12.7°C | 10.7°C | 8 mph | 2 mph |
| 2026-05-18 19:00 | 13h | 12.8°C | 10.7°C | 8 mph | 2 mph |
| 2026-05-18 19:00 | 12h | 12.8°C | 10.7°C | 8 mph | 2 mph |